Oscar Predictions by Marlene Ardoin
BEST PICTURE
Who did win: Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers)
Who will win: Roma
Who should win: Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King, Producer)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” has heart and shows the triumph of the human spirit. The real Freddie Mercury was magnificent and this film captures that feeling. This film tells the truth in a compassionate way. Director, Graham King, has good reason to be proud of this film.
Other contenders:
Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
This is my second choice. “Vice” is very informative, if crass. And it does reveal the redeeming qualities in Vice President Cheney. He mastered playing the power game under the radar, because he did not want the media to dig up the fact that his daughter, whom he loved and supported, was gay. In this film, Cheney plays the game, until the time is right to reveal all his winning cards. His wife and her mother, did not have that opportunity. Sexism was at its height during the era depicted, but at least Cheney was not the total cad that I thought he was. His virtue was loyalty and devotion to his family.
A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers)
How does the actor die in the first version? One of the versions has a car crash, not suicide. I don’t remember, but somehow the alcoholism was easier for me to take, than in this film. This film shows the mean side of alcoholism. The cold turkey self-destruction in this film made it unwatchable for me. Lady Gaga’s character comes off as caring, but unbelievable. Was she blind? This man is spiraling onto the edge of self-destruction, while she is spiraling up, up and away with her career. In other versions of this film, the actress at least tries to bolster up her man, and to provide opportunities for him to succeed, but his pride does him in. In this film, the relationships look parasitic and cruel. Singing his favorite song does not make this all better. This is another film that I never want to see again.
Black Panther (Kevin Feige, Producer)
The first Black superhero is a start. “Black Panther” invites Blacks to be loyal and to raise each other up, but it does not unify all. It is “us” versus “them” mentality. It is possible to be high tech, but not moral, as the film illustrates. I just wish superiority was judged by something other than physical prowess. Too many fight scenes for me. It begged for a new definition of moral leadership, without having to win in a physical fight. This film pushes the needle of cause and effect, but seems to blame the older generation for all the bad karma.
BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers)
This film is not going to convert any KKK members to step down from that mindset. If anything, it will antagonize them. No one likes to be a fool, or to be made fun of. This is racism against whites.
The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers)
This is sexism in the extreme, from the very first image of a female being pushed from a carriage into the mud, to the last moment, when she is rubbing the queen’s legs. Does it give a fair examination of the queen’s reign? No. It lacks compassion and insight. How did this film ever get on the list? It seems to revel in making women look ridiculous. The lavish set and costumes are the only things that are working for it.
Roma (Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron, Producers)
Maybe I just do not get the Mexican culture, but this film was painfully slow. The doctor/husband dumps his wife of many years, and many children, for a younger, friskier woman. Shallow, self-absorbed sexism at best. Their maid doesn’t do any better. The story telling strips all loyalty, caring, and beauty from male and female relationships. It is made into something that is soulless, dirty and bestial. The women seem to just accept this as normal, since they are totally trapped by their monetary dependency on men. The maid gets pregnant with someone who just wants to make babies, not take responsibility for them, because he is poor? Poor excuse. The women in this film come off as noble and dumb. The wife, at least, has a moral compass, as she tries to care for the children, her mother and the maid, as best she can. She, at least, is capable of expressing love and caring. I really do not want to sit through this film again.
Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers)
Dr. Don Shirley was a worthy subject, but the film makers were hell bent on making the driver into some kind of hero figure, when it should have been the other way around. The writers did not bother to look up the facts or to consult the Shirley family to get the facts, before making this film. Dr. Don Shirley was a piano prodigy and a civil rights activist, who would retreat into academia for support. There was no proof that he was gay. He was, however, very brave to do a piano recital in the South, when he did. He was braver than the driver. The film does not reveal Shirley’s connection to Martin Luther King, Jr. Hopefully, someone else will do a proper remake of this film.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who did win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Who should win: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) or Adam McKay (Vice)
I am split between “Blackkklansman” and “Vice.” Spike Lee is due for some recognition, but I think “Vice” was more complex, and had greater acting challenges that were pulled off successfully. The characters of Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, Condoleezza Rice and Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld characters were all outstanding. “Vice” brings insight and empathy to a fairly unlikeable main character. As a whole, “Vice was more thought provoking and moving. “Blackkklansman” was more like a high school prank. The terror of the situation was not quite realized. The insight and motivation of the Klan was not realized. This was a missed opportunity to understand and to heal our country, and the world, of an internal scourge. Spike Lee has been trying for a long time to put a spotlight on this situation. He should have gotten an award a long time ago for “Do the Right Thing.”
Other contenders:
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
The world that this director creates is ugly. I have no doubt that was his intension. The situations were devoid of any inspiration, rather, of hopelessness. In a childlike way, the director appears to be putting the mother on a pedestal. All the male characters are cads, and this is not something that money can fix. The women need to be educated, and the men need some kind of moral education. This film was painfully slow, and could not end fast enough.
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
This director has a taste for lavish sets and costumes, too bad he appears to hate women. Lanthimos lacks insight into the era, and does not have a clue about what women were up against during that time period. News flash, women are not like men, they do not fight with each other over power positions. This director seems to delight in seeing women in humiliating situations, or better yet, to see them inadvertently maiming each other. The director’s lack of insight and compassion regrettably mars this film.
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
This director has a very cold view of the world. The couple in this story are victims of a cold world. They obviously care for each other, but do not have the tools or trust to make their relationship work. The male characters in this film maintain relationships of convenience that are devoid of love. And, the main female character has escaped an abusive family situation, where her trust was permanently destroyed. These lovebirds are doomed from the beginning. There is no moral compass for either of them, no religious training to go by. He does not know how to make her feel safe, and she has no trust in anything or anyone. Even when this couple is given a second chance, they do not have the courage to rely on each other, they are doomed. They love each other, but the world created does not respect love. This film was painful to watch.
BEST ACTRESS
Who did win: Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Who will win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Who should win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Ms. Close is amazing at expressing silent rage. The fact that her character has a son, whom she loves; the fact that she was not prevented from writing; must have been the reason that she put up with this cad of a husband, as long as she did. Can rage cause heart attacks? Had it not been for a nosy journalist, she may never have been confronted with the truth. Too bad the journalist did not show up sooner.
Other contenders:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Aparicio has a clean slate, her character as a maid appears to have no family of her own. Where were they, when she gets pregnant? If there is anything to recommend her character, it is the fact that she lives happily in the present moment. She has no insight into male motivation. If he is giving me attention, he must love me. Male ego appears to impress her. In addition to no family, she does not seem to realize that she could get pregnant. Internally, her spirit reacts to her situation, by rejecting the birth. In the end, she is willing to risk her own life for the sake of the children, who love her. The film suggests that she exists on a higher spiritual level, than most people.
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
I am only guessing, but I presume that she is playing a widow queen, who was trying to sublimate her sexual impulses. She has women fighting over her favor and usurping her power as a queen. What happened to all her children? All seventeen of her children died, twelve of them were stillborn. News flash, women rule differently than men. If given the freedom, they show compassion and consider how things might affect others. It is not Colman’s fault that the director and writer hate women. Her role and acting won’t be getting an Oscar from me. To defend the real Queen Anne, Britain became a major military power on land, the union of England and Scotland created a united kingdom of Great Britain, and the economic and political base for the golden age of the 18th century was established during her reign. She attended more cabinet meetings than any of her predecessors or successors, and presided over an age of artistic, literary, economic and political advancement that was made possible by the stability and prosperity of her reign.
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Gaga’s interpretation of the rising star was too edgy for me. Her character has a father and people rooting for her. She walks off her job, but it comes off as inconsiderate. Sort of like the Jennifer Lopez character in “Second Act.” It is all about me, and if you are having a mental breakdown, don’t bother me, try rehab, instead, because I am too busy becoming a big success. I found her role emotionally cold and the suicide leaves blood on the hands of her character that will not wash off.
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Melissa McCanthy usually chooses roles that have a little more warmth, than this. As you think, so you become. I was turned off by the foul language and extremely bad attitude all the way through the film. I think she has another Academy Award in her, but she really needs to get a better agent. This is a real story becoming her real story.
BEST ACTOR
Who did win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Who will win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Who should win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
This was the only character in the bunch that I wanted to spend two hours with. Rami does a great job of bringing back Freddie Mercury. We all know the music, but thanks to Malek, we now can empathize with the story, as we get to know the Queens. Mercury picked a really nice group of co-workers. This film, and Malek, make it clear, who cares and who does not.
Other contenders:
Christian Bale (Vice)
This would be my second choice. Bale really does step into the shoes of Dick Cheney. The transformation is impressive, as are all the film’s characterizations. Too bad Cheney was not such a nice person, but Bale does make him relatable. Cheney, as presented, appears to be an under the radar opportunist. His saving grace is his loyalty to his wife and daughters. He has their back and wants the best for them. He is blessed with a strong nuclear family.
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
I really wish Bradley Cooper would start to choose roles that are not so embarrassing. He is a handsome guy, so why all the wake up from a stupor, wet my pants in front of an audience roles? He can do much better. He does not have to embarrass himself to get to the Academy Awards.
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)
I really like Dafoe, just not in this role. I was uncomfortable with the sensory, poverty stricken, exploitative, opportunistic, crazy, messed up interpretation. But I must say, that I will never look at a Van Gogh painting the same way again. This film suggests that he would do just about anything to satisfy his sexual impulses, maybe even molest kids, which is left up to the audience to decide.
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Although Mortensen does a great job in this role, I really wanted the main character to be Dr. Don Shirley, not the driver. After researching the real Don Shirley, I became disgusted with the driver’s characterization, and the emphasis behind it. The filmmakers made a big mistake by not consulting the Shirley family before making this film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who did win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Who will win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Who Should win: Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Her role is the only female character among the choice range, that I could even half-way recommend as a role model. If her cad of a husband is a wealthy doctor (who appears to love money more than people), she was clearly the CEO of the household, who was taking responsibility for her children, her servants, her mother and keeping the boat from sinking, by spoiling her husband way beyond what he deserves. And, she does it without even a hint of resentment. She appears to have strength of character and resiliency. When another man hits on her, after her husband leaves, she soundly rebuffs the sordid attention. She protects her children’s good opinion of their father by making excuse, after excuse, for his bad behavior. I cannot reward a wife role for being on a pedestal, even if she does appear to have strength of character. She and her mother single-handedly take the members of the household under their wings. However, kindness is not always smart. She pampers a husband, who has no character. I wanted her to tell her no good husband to “grab a shovel, and clean the dog shit off the pavement himself.” If she had done this, it would have raised this role to another level for me.
Other contenders:
Amy Adams (Vice)
Adams portrays the equally opportunistic wife of Cheney. She is his strong right hand in all matters. Too bad she could not rescue her own mother from the abusive hands of her father. Usually, such girls end up marrying the same partners as their fathers, but she lucks out with Cheney. When he falls, she is always right there to pick him up and set him straight. She appears to be living through her husband’s successes. I do not think Cheney made all of those decisions on his own. Adam’s character was clearly his confidant, so she deserves one-half of the blame.
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
King plays the young, soon to be old, wife of a Black man. Her husband, like many others, will inevitably end up in prison. Her path to marital bliss is very short lived, and the in-laws will always blame her, and not the justice system, for her husband’s imprisonment. Baldwin’s story depicts the life of many Black marriages during the civil rights era. I would have liked the two families to support each other, but that does not happen. Her character gets pregnant, then makes the best of a bad situation. I wanted her to do something more, to bring the families together, to not be a victim, to get her man out of prison, to do something more.
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Stone made it to the Academy Awards, but at what cost? Why would she agree to go through the motions of so much humiliation? I was not impressed with this as a role model for other young girls.
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Weisz gets the same comments as for Stone. Why, why, why, would you agree to such a role? Humiliation is too tame a word for her character.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who did win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Who will win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Who should win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Ali manages to keep his dignity intact, in spite of being downgraded to a supporting role, when he should have been written in as Best Actor. That dignity is maintained in spite of suggestions that Dr. Don Shirley might be gay; he might not like to eat with his fingers; he might not be capable of punching someone in the nose; and he might not be welcome at his own family during the Holidays. These are all false accusations. I am in awe of how he managed to do everything that was asked of him, yet still be the most memorable character in the whole film. I think this was accomplished, because Ali possesses a strong sense of self-worth and inner dignity.
Other contenders:
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam Driver plays the white cop, who infiltrates the KKK, who was never in any real danger, because he looks just like them. Here was Driver’s missed chance to shed some light on the thought process and motivation of a Klansman in the making. Even though he was portraying one of the bad guys, he could have garnered some understanding of and empathy for their pathetic state of being. Like it or not, the KKK is a real part of American culture.
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Elliott plays the long suffering brother of the country singer star, who is having a mid-age crisis. Elliott is always likable in his roles, but here, he utterly fails his brother. To quote a part of this dialogue: “I got to be honest with you, things are easier without you.” Where is the love, the courage and the loyalty here? I cannot reward a character, who just takes the easy path, because it is easy. His brother needed a real friend, who really cared, which might have made a difference, and might have caused there to be a different outcome. His role should have had more meat to it, if it was not all about being easy. This is the filmmaker’s fault, not Elliott’s.
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Grant’s character is the epitome of a low level, opportunistic narcissist. It is all about how I look, how I win. He has no real empathy or caring for others. If McCarthy’s character had a bad attitude, Grant’s character was bad to the core. His thought process was: “she has an apartment and she has a cat that she loves, how can I exploit that?” His role teaches us how to be better judges of character, and better judges of who we let into our lives. I’ll give him that, but no Oscar.
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
I personally believe that the real George W. Bush became a better leader by the end of his tenure. Rockwell portrays him as some kind of drunken puppet leader, who was okay with Cheney calling all the shots. The real Bush was more sensitive than that, more thoughtful, and more caring, because he had a better wife. I feel that Rockwell’s portrayal is one-dimensional and false. Again, it is the fault of the film makers, not of Rockwell.
2/23/2019 # 2019 Oscar Predictions
Movies That Won't Kill Your Soul 